U.S. Security Institute: Collapse of Russia Will Continue

29 May 2010

By Markaz Kavkaz

A prominent political scientist, director of Russian and Asian programs at the US Security Institute Nikolai Zlobin pointed out that the collapse of Russia has not been yet completed.  

"We are in process. It would be naive to believe that the empire collapsed in one day. Empires collapse slowly and painfully. Especially, if they consist of neighboring territories and mixed population defined by a set of criteria", he points out.  

It is equally naive to expect, Zlobin continues, if the collapse occurred in accordance with the borders of the Union republics, that was the end of it. Many of the borders are unnatural and do not coincide with historical, ethnic, cultural, religious, economical borders. The borders within the USSR were political.  

As a result, according to Zlobin, the post-Soviet space is an unstable region with a high degree of unpredictability and a high proportion of political improvisation. There is a probability of appearance of new states and a collapse or a change of territories of some present countries.  

It is to be mentioned that many experts and analysts speak for a long time an inevitable collapse of Russia. Some Western analysts predict the collapse of Russia after a temporary commodity upsurge within the next 10 years.  

This forecast, in particular, is contained in a book by the head of the American analytical service Stratfor Inc. George Friedman entitled The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century, which was published in 2009.  

According to one of the most respected futurist analysts, in short-term prospect, Russia can expect a rise linked to a high demand for raw materials.  

During this period, Moscow will pursue an aggressive foreign policy in an attempt to regain influence in the former Soviet Union. However, in 10 years, Russian welfare will collapse because of the poor management, primitive structure of economy and decline in fertility.  

According to Friedman, the collapse of Russia will boost the influence of Poland and Turkey. In addition, the analyst predicts the collapse of China and the strengthening of Japan.  

Many Russian national liberals and the nationalists believe there is no need to fear of the collapse of Russia. On the contrary, in their opinion, the sooner it happens the better it would be for Russians.  

The collapse of the current inefficient and primitive imperial formation would allow the regions to build a diversified economy, to establish acceptable laws, in some countries, to destroy the corrupt "vertical of power" and the criminal "power vertical".  

According to many critics of the Kremlin regime, if the powers in Russian belonged not to to the KGB, but to responsible forces, they would have started a process of decentralization of Russia themselves. In that case the process would be controlled and bloodless, without social upheaval and civil strife, the Ingriya.info website reports.





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